You won’t hear any manager admit it but not all opposition is created equal. The truth is that some games are just tougher than others.
And when it comes to judging the relative strength of football teams the bookies’ livelihoods depend on them not getting much wrong.
Pre-Season Estimates
Shortly after the Championship fixtures were announced for this season, data analyst and author of the excellent experimental361.com Ben Mayhew produced his ‘Fixture Difficulty Matrix.’
This showed at a glance who appeared to have the most difficult season-opening and run-in based on the odds published by leading bookmakers before the season kicked off.
After the first couple of months it makes for an interesting re-visit. Ben’s pre-season comments were understandable regarding the challenging opening of Bristol City who faced five of the six most fancied sides in their first eight games and Derby County who had an unpredictable mix of relegation favourites and promotion candidates to start their campaign.
11 Games In
Everyone has been impressed if a little surprised at David Wagner’s marvelous table topping exploits with Huddersfield Town but perhaps more impressive still has been the performance of Lee Johnson’s Bristol City who not only lie in fifth place (some 12 places higher than the bookies’ estimate) but have managed this after the second most difficult start.
At the other end of the table, Cardiff City sit uncomfortably in the relegation zone despite their first 11 games being the third easiest according to the bookies.
Coming This Month and Next
As competition resumes this weekend after the International break, it’s interesting to consider what the rest of October and November have in store. Very often the league positions by Christmas are a good indication of how things might finish.
Perhaps more worryingly than their lowly current position for new Cardiff City manager Neil Warnock is that the next seven games are the second most difficult run for any Championship team and their relegation rivals Blackburn Rovers have a tough couple of months to try to turn their fortunes around.
And maybe the biggest challenge for the next seven games falls to those mid table clubs who have loftier ambitions like Fulham, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR and the big spending Wolverhampton Wanderers. These four teams make up the rest of the six clubs with the hardest two months ahead of them.
It’s probably not too dramatic to say that whichever of these four rises to the October/November challenge will place themselves firmly in the race for the promised land and for the team that fails to reach December unscathed another season of Championship toil awaits.
It’s no surprise to most that Rafa Benitez’s revitalised Newcastle are well poised in third place and with some relatively easier games to come in the next few weeks but another dark horse is Birmingham City under the impressive stewardship of Blues legend Gary Rowett.
Birmingham currently occupy the final play off place and are ready to face the apparently easiest seven week ride of all. I must admit I cringe each time I say such things as I imagine the managers daggers as they try to keep a sense of perspective among the players.
None of this is guaranteed of course but barring the odd Leicester City aberration, the bookies don’t get that much wrong.